2011 Predictions: Clem Sunter and the rest

By Staff Writer

Over the past few days we’ve had some good news and we’ve had some bad news. Maya Fisher-French, Luke HFirst and Andy Gilder all gave us their predictions for what they think 2011 will mean for consumers.

There are, however, many other experts giving their thoughts on what 2011 holds and without adding these to our list of crystal ball polishers, our 2011 predictions series would not be complete.

Columnist and economist extraordinaire, Clem Sunter, wrote in his column for News24 that he expects the electronic wallet could boom.

“For smaller transactions, cellphones are set to feature more and more as the key device to make them happen – whether it is shopping in the supermarket, making transfers to relatives and friends or even being paid your monthly salary.”

“ Your cellphone will become your electronic wallet as you click and pay your way through life,” Sunter wrote.

Sunter also believes that it will be a crucial year for South Africa’s New Growth Path.

“Other than the FIFA World Cup, the most significant event of 2010 in South Africa was the launching of the New Growth Path by Ebrahim Patel.”

“The way the document is implemented over the next few years could determine South Africa’s fortunes over the remainder of this century. Either we create a participative economy with a genuine chance of a better life for all; or we face the possibility of civil war caused by the gross imbalances in our society. Remember the rule of Marx: if the masses are alienated, expect a revolution,” he added.

Economists reckon South Africa is in for a rate hike this year and have warned about an increasing risk to South Africa's inflation outlook.

"We believe that we will see the first hike in November," said Annabel Bishop, economist at Investec Group Economics.

"If the reserve bank does not increase rates at that stage, the real interest rate will fall below 1% which is not in line with what they have done historically," she added.

This means that those who currently have finance linked to the prime interest rate should be careful when taking out anymore finance. It might also mean that you should look at having your home remortgaged, should the rate change.

FNB’s annual macroeconomic outlook  had this to say about where they see the Rand headed:

Because we expect the global factors which fuelled rand strength in 2010 to persist, the local unit should remain well supported. Nevertheless, given that policy in emerging markets are gradually normalising on the back of increasing inflation and further policy stimulus in the developed world is unlikely, we are cautious about being overly aggressive in our outlook. We are also mindful that the current valuation is already extended.

What are your predictions for 2011? E-mail us your thoughts on info@justmoney.co.za

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