Guiding consumers since 2009

2011 Predictions series: Simon Brown - CEO JustOneLap.com

By Staff Writer

2008 was the year of the crash and everything went down.
2009 was the year of the strong bounce and almost everything went up.
2010 was the year of stock selection with consumer stocks the winners.

2011?

A few trends I am looking out for.

The commodity rally will continue and, yes, gold will have yet another green year. But will it be the top performing commodity? I don't think so. I expect Platinum and Palladium to be the winners with the latter the white metal winner. Then of course Silver may do a repeat of 2010 and have another spectacular year. Of course the coppers, coal, iron ore and the like will continue upwards giving the diversified miners still more lift.

Looking to the sectors I am expecting construction to be one of the winners. Importantly I am expecting the news to still be doom and gloom from the sector, but as the market looks 12-18 months forward at some point investors are going to realise that the sector isn't just going to die and start buying ahead of a normalisation of earnings.

I would also look for some activity in the small cap and AltX stocks. They got nailed during the tough years and haven't really recovered as money flowed into the large and mid cap stocks. But sooner or later investors will turn their attention the last few areas with value remaining and then they will start some very cautious buying of the small stocks. It will be very cautious as investors tend to have long memories and losses of +90% in same small stocks have left them fearful. The real crazy rally here will only really occur later in the bull run, but it'll likely start this year.

Foreigners will continue to buy SA stocksand bonds as they seek yield and this will under pin our market and also strengthen the rand.

Lastly - the rand. I left this for last as forecasting a currency is a mug’s game - but broadly I expect the Rand to continue to strengthen against the major currencies.

Simon Brown hosts his own radio show, JSEDirect, on Classic 102.7 ands is a frequent market commentator on various TV and radio stations.

His newsest venture is a free, online university to help South Africans manage their money better, it'll be launching in Q1 2011 and you'll find it at JustOneLap.com.


 

Recent Articles

Featured Can you take out vehicle finance on an old vehicle?

As it turns out, creditors have several concerns regarding cars older than 10 years. Justmoney has a look at why creditors are sceptical of older vehicles and what you can do to get around this.

Should you have a living will in place?

When you hear the word will, the only thing that comes to mind is the document that states who is going to inherit you property when you’re dead. But have you thought about who’s going to decide what happens to you when you become incapacitated? A living will can help you do just this.

Know the difference between a loan and a credit facility

Choosing the correct product according to your needs is critical in making smart financial decisions. Credit options can be separated into two main categories – loans and credit facilities. But for some people, the lines can be quite blurred between the two.

Is property a good investment?

It’s good to consider whether property is a good investment. Justmoney spoke to numerous specialists to find out whether this is the case in South Africa.

Deals

DaVinci’s on Kloof Students Discount

Price: Available on request
When: Daily
Where: Cape Town

Ghandi's Backpackers and Guest Lodge 10% Discount

Price: Available on request
When: Daily
Where: Johannesburg

Fairway Hotel Happy Hour Special

Price: Available on request
When: Until 13 December 2019
Where: Johannesburg