What does the future hold?

Predicting the market is a notoriously hard business. There are legions of analysts employed to make predictions that are often little better than stabs in the dark or loaded versions that reflect what the analyst and their backers would like to see happen. In some instances this can actually move the market enough to become a self fulfilling prophecy, but in most cases what is called is just a shot in the dark. So how does the market move?

 

• The market moves in cycles
• These cycles can't always be predicted
• Social mood is a major influence

 

The folks at Elliot Wave International believe that the market is governed more by Socionomics, which postulates "that social mood drives financial, macroeconomic and political behaviour, in contrast to the conventional notion that such events drive social mood". This is an important distinction. It means that what we feel about the economy has a larger effect on it than the 'underlying economic fundamentals' leading the legions of analysts to remain employed even after the financial crisis.

So what can you do? Remain positive, work hard and stick to your budget plan. Don't believe all that you read and look to who is making money out of anything to see what the truth (if any) lies there within. The Elliot Wave guys reckon that the market moves in massive cycles and that they can track where it's going to go. Like all analysts they have their own interests but tend to take a larger view of collective market psychology. The future will hold what it holds, que sera sera.